Quant Buffet放轻松,别过度思虑

货币期货的隔夜-日内每周反转策略

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学术论文

Market Closure and Short-Term Reversal

作者市场休市和短期反转 [点击查看论文]

机构
  • Centre for Economic Policy Research
  • ?Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • ?Imperial College Business School
  • University of Oxford
  • Quantitative BioSciences
  • ?CEPR (Centre for Economic Policy Research)
  • ?University of Oxford, Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance
  • Tsinghua University
  • ?Tsinghua University, School of Economics and Management

策略概要

该策略针对9种货币期货,包括澳元、英镑等,其开盘价和收盘价来自TickData。投资者选择流动性最强的合约,重点关注最接近交割的合约。通过买入过去的周五至周一开盘输家,卖出赢家,创建零投资组合。使用论文中指定的公式计算单个货币的权重。投资组合在形成期后的周一开盘至周五收盘期间进行交易,每周重新平衡,以根据最新的回报模式调整头寸。此方法旨在利用短期货币市场的低效率。

II. 策略合理性

价格反转通常是由于投资者对新闻反应过度,随后出现价格修正。市场休市,如隔夜或周末休息,通常以较低的流动性和交易活动为特征。Nagel(2012)发现,以VIX指数衡量的隔夜不确定性增加,在解释收盘至开盘(CO-OC)反转策略的利润方面起着重要作用。这种效应在期货市场比在股票市场更强。CO-OC反转模式与Hong和Wang(2000)的连续时间模型一致,该模型表明,市场休市期间的对冲需求导致这些反转,从而创造了盈利机会。

回测表现

波动率11.17%
夏普比率0.82
索提诺比率-0.472
胜率50%

完整 Python 代码

from AlgorithmImports import *
class OvernightIntradayWeeklyReversalCurrency(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
 self.SetStartDate(2000, 1, 1)
 self.SetCash(100000)
 
 self.symbols = [
                 "CME_AD1", # Australian Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 "CME_BP1", # British Pound Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 "CME_CD1", # Canadian Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 "CME_EC1", # Euro FX Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 "CME_JY1", # Japanese Yen Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 "CME_MP1", # Mexican Peso Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 "CME_NE1", # New Zealand Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 "CME_SF1"  # Swiss Franc Futures, Continuous Contract #1
                 ]
 
 self.friday_close = {}
 self.leverage = 1
 
 for symbol in self.symbols:
     data = self.AddData(QuantpediaFutures, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
     data.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel())
     data.SetLeverage(5)
     self.friday_close[symbol] = 0
     
def OnData(self, data):
 # Saturday -> Friday close available
 if self.Time.date().weekday() == 5:
     for symbol in self.symbols:
         if symbol in data and data[symbol]:
             price = data[symbol].Value
             if price != 0:
                 self.friday_close[symbol] = price
             
     self.Liquidate()
 # Tuesday -> Monday close available
 elif self.Time.date().weekday() == 1:
     returns = {}
     
     for symbol in self.symbols:
         # Check if data is still coming.
         if self.securities[symbol].get_last_data() and self.time.date() > QuantpediaFutures.get_last_update_date()[symbol]:
             self.liquidate(symbol)
             continue
         if symbol in data and data[symbol]:
             price = data[symbol].Value
             if price != 0 and symbol in self.friday_close and self.friday_close[symbol] != 0:
                 returns[symbol] = price / self.friday_close[symbol] - 1
     
     self.friday_close.clear()
     if len(returns) == 0: 
         return
     
     ret_mean = np.mean([x[1] for x in returns.items()])
     
     weight = {}
     N = len(returns)
     for symbol in returns:
         weight[symbol] = -(1/N) * (returns[symbol] - ret_mean) * 100

     for symbol in weight:
         self.SetHoldings(symbol, self.leverage * weight[symbol])
# Quantpedia data.
# NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise)
class QuantpediaFutures(PythonData):
_last_update_date:Dict[Symbol, datetime.date] = {}
@staticmethod
def get_last_update_date() -> Dict[Symbol, datetime.date]:
return QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date
def GetSource(self, config, date, isLiveMode):
 return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/{0}.csv".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv)
def Reader(self, config, line, date, isLiveMode):
 data = QuantpediaFutures()
 data.Symbol = config.Symbol
 
 if not line[0].isdigit(): return None
 split = line.split(';')
 
 data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%d.%m.%Y") + timedelta(days=1)
 data['back_adjusted'] = float(split[1])
 data['spliced'] = float(split[2])
 data.Value = float(split[1])
 if config.Symbol.Value not in QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date:
     QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = datetime(1,1,1).date()
 if data.Time.date() > QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value]:
     QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = data.Time.date()
     
 return data
# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
 fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
 return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))