Quant Buffet放轻松,别过度思虑

动量季节性与投资者偏好策略

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学术论文

Covering-Up When the Tide Goes Out? Momentum Seasonality and Investor Preferences

作者潮水退去时的掩盖?动量季节性与投资者偏好 [点击查看论文]

机构
  • ?Barradale Asset Management

策略概要

投资范围包括纳斯达克、美国证券交易所和纽约证券交易所的所有股票。每个月,投资者根据过去21-251天的回报对股票进行排序,并将其分为十分位数。在每个季度末(三月、六月、九月和十二月),投资者买入表现最佳的十分位数,卖出表现最差的十分位数。投资组合中的股票等权重,投资组合每季度重新平衡,重点关注特定时期内基于过往回报表现最佳和最差的股票。

II. 策略合理性

该策略利用动量回报的季节性模式,该模式在日历季度末之前较高,尤其是在市场下跌之后。这受到橱窗修饰效应的驱动,机构买入赢家并卖出输家,以提高季度或年度业绩报告。这种对表现良好的股票和市场的偏好,以及对表现不佳的股票和市场的不偏好,导致赢家在季度末跑赢大盘,输家跑输大盘。该策略通过关注季度末之前近期表现强劲的股票,同时避免表现不佳的股票,从而利用这种动量。

回测表现

索提诺比率0.191
胜率50%

完整 Python 代码

from AlgorithmImports import *
from pandas.core.frame import DataFrame
class MomentumSeasonalityInvestorPreferences(QCAlgorithm):

def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2010, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100000)
market:Symbol = self.AddEquity('SPY', Resolution.Daily).Symbol

self.fundamental_count:int = 500
self.fundamental_sorting_key = lambda x: x.DollarVolume

self.period:int = 12 * 21
self.quantile:int = 10
self.leverage:int = 5
self.exchange_codes:List[str] = ['NYS', 'NAS', 'ASE']
self.long:List[Symbol] = []
self.short:List[Symbol] = []

# Daily price data.
self.data:Dict[Symbol, SymbolData] = {}

self.selection_flag:bool = True
self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily
self.AddUniverse(self.FundamentalSelectionFunction)
self.settings.daily_precise_end_time = False
self.settings.minimum_order_margin_portfolio_percentage = 0.
self.schedule.on(self.date_rules.month_start(market),
                self.time_rules.after_market_open(market),
                self.selection)
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes: SecurityChanges) -> None:
for security in changes.AddedSecurities:
    security.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel())
    security.SetLeverage(self.leverage)
				
def FundamentalSelectionFunction(self, fundamental: List[Fundamental]) -> List[Symbol]:
# Update the rolling window every day.
for stock in fundamental:
    symbol:Symbol = stock.Symbol
    # Store monthly price.
    if symbol in self.data:
        self.data[symbol].update(stock.AdjustedPrice)
if not self.selection_flag:
    return Universe.Unchanged
selected:List[Fundamental] = [x for x in fundamental if x.HasFundamentalData and x.Market == 'usa' and x.SecurityReference.ExchangeId in self.exchange_codes and x.MarketCap != 0]
if len(selected) > self.fundamental_count:
    selected = [x for x in sorted(selected, key=self.fundamental_sorting_key, reverse=True)[:self.fundamental_count]]
    
performance:Dict[Symbol, float] = {}
# Warmup price rolling windows.
for stock in selected:
    symbol:Symbol = stock.Symbol
    if symbol not in self.data:
        self.data[symbol] = SymbolData(self.period)
        history:DataFrame = self.History(symbol, self.period, Resolution.Daily)
        if history.empty:
            self.Log(f"Not enough data for {symbol} yet")
            continue
        closes:pd.Series = history.loc[symbol].close
        for time, close in closes.items():
            self.data[symbol].update(close)
        
    if self.data[symbol].is_ready():
        performance[symbol] = self.data[symbol].performance()

if len(performance) >= self.quantile:
    sorted_by_performance:List = sorted(performance, key = performance.get, reverse = True)
    quantile:int = int(len(sorted_by_performance) / self.quantile)
    self.long = sorted_by_performance[:quantile]
    self.short = sorted_by_performance[-quantile:]

return self.long + self.short
def OnData(self, data: Slice) -> None:
if not self.selection_flag:
    return
self.selection_flag = False

# order execution
targets:List[PortfolioTarget] = []
for i, portfolio in enumerate([self.long, self.short]):
    for symbol in portfolio:
        if symbol in data and data[symbol]:
            targets.append(PortfolioTarget(symbol, ((-1) ** i) / len(portfolio)))
		
self.SetHoldings(targets, True)
self.long.clear()
self.short.clear()
def selection(self) -> None:
if self.Time.month % 3 == 0:
    self.Liquidate()
    self.selection_flag = True
class SymbolData():
def __init__(self, period: int):
self._price:RollingWindow = RollingWindow[float](period)

def update(self, price: float) -> None:
self._price.Add(price)

def is_ready(self) -> bool:
return self._price.IsReady

# Yearly performance, one month skipped.
def performance(self) -> float:
closes:List[float] = list(self._price)[21:]
return (closes[0] / closes[-1] - 1)

# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))