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Weather-Based Equity Trading Strategy

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Academic paper

Are Weather-Based Trading Strategies Profitable?

AuthorsMing Dong; Andréanne Tremblay

Institute
  • CAYork University
  • ?York University - Schulich School of Business
  • CAUniversité Laval
  • ?Université Laval - Département de Finance et Assurance

Strategy in a nutshell

Trades global equity indices from cold northern countries using daily weather variables (sky cover, wind, temperature, precipitation, snow) as predictors. Long indices with highest predicted returns, rebalanced daily.

Economic rationale

Multiple weather factors influence investor mood, impacting returns. Using a broad set of conditions improves predictive power, yielding stable, significant profits even after transaction costs.

Backtest performance

Annualised return16.78%
Volatility23.31%
Sharpe ratio0.55