Trading the Crude Oil Term Structure
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Strategy in a nutshell
This strategy applies the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model to WTI futures, forecasting term structures across maturities with AR-1 and Lasso estimation. Trades are executed weekly by comparing 2nd and 12th futures’ returns, taking long-short calendar spread positions, reversed or extended based on thresholds.
Economic rationale
Crude oil’s volatility stems from geopolitical, economic, and speculative forces. The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model captures these term structure dynamics, enabling more accurate forecasting and improved trading performance.
Backtest performance
Annualised return5.4%
Volatility7.1%
Sharpe ratio1.05