Quant BuffetRelax, Not Over Thinking

Simple NAV Arbitrage within Country ETFs

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Academic paper

Strategy in a nutshell

The strategy trades international ETFs, forecasting the UK iShare ETF NAV at the US market close. If the ETF trades more than 50bp away from this forecast, the investor goes long or short the ETF while hedging with SPY, holding positions for one day to capture pricing inefficiencies.

Economic rationale

iShare ETF prices may overreact to late-day US market news. These overreactions cause predictable next-day price adjustments, allowing the strategy to exploit systematic deviations between ETF prices and their forecasted NAVs.

Backtest performance

Annualised return33.88%