Quant BuffetRelax, Not Over Thinking

Short-Term (1 Month) Momentum in Currencies

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Academic paper

Is There Momentum or Reversal in Weekly Currency Returns?

AuthorsAhmad Raza; Ben R. Marshall; Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Institute
  • NZUniversity of Otago
  • ?University of Otago - Department of Accountancy and Finance
  • NZMassey University
  • ?Massey University - School of Economics and Finance
  • ?Massey University - Department of Economics and Finance

Strategy in a nutshell

The strategy trades 63 currencies against the USD, forming a long–short portfolio based on 4-week lagged excess returns. Currencies in the top 20% of returns are classified as "winners," while those in the bottom 20% are "losers." The portfolio goes long winners and shorts losers, equally weighted and rebalanced every four weeks.

Economic rationale

Momentum returns increase with longer look-back periods, but the 4-week horizon maximizes returns in short-term FX trends. Returns are higher during DOWN states (after depreciation of major currencies versus USD) and exhibit stable volatility, yielding attractive risk-adjusted performance.

Backtest performance

Annualised return7.1%
Volatility8.1%
Beta-0.049
Sharpe ratio0.88
Sortino ratio-0.399
Win rate44%

Full Python code

from AlgorithmImports import *
class ShortTermMomentumCurrencies(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
 self.SetStartDate(2010, 1, 1)
 self.SetCash(100000)
 
 self.symbols = [
     "CME_AD1", # Australian Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
     "CME_BP1", # British Pound Futures, Continuous Contract #1
     "CME_CD1", # Canadian Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
     "CME_EC1", # Euro FX Futures, Continuous Contract #1
     "CME_JY1", # Japanese Yen Futures, Continuous Contract #1
     "CME_MP1", # Mexican Peso Futures, Continuous Contract #1
     "CME_NE1",# New Zealand Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
     "CME_SF1", # Swiss Franc Futures, Continuous Contract #1
 ]
 
 self.period = 21
 self.quantile = 5
 self.SetWarmUp(self.period)
 
 self.data = {}
 
 for symbol in self.symbols:
     data = self.AddData(QuantpediaFutures, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
     data.SetLeverage(5)
     data.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel())
     
     self.data[symbol] = RollingWindow[float](self.period)
 
 self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.MonthStart(self.symbols[0]), self.TimeRules.At(0, 0), self.Rebalance)
def OnData(self, data):
 for symbol in self.data:
     symbol_obj = self.Symbol(symbol)
     if symbol_obj in data.Keys:
         if data[symbol_obj]:
             price = data[symbol_obj].Value
             if price != 0:
                 self.data[symbol].Add(price)
 
def Rebalance(self):
 if self.IsWarmingUp: return
 returns = {}
 for symbol in self.data:
     if self.data[symbol].IsReady:
         # Check if data is still coming.
         if self.securities[symbol].get_last_data() and self.time.date() > QuantpediaFutures.get_last_update_date()[symbol]:
             self.liquidate(symbol)
             continue
         
         ret = self.data[symbol][0] / self.data[symbol][self.period-1] - 1
         returns[symbol] = ret
 
 long = []
 short = []
 if len(returns) >= self.quantile:
     # Return sorting.
     sorted_by_return = sorted(returns.items(), key = lambda x: x[1], reverse = True)
     quintile = int(len(sorted_by_return) / self.quantile)
     long = [x[0] for x in sorted_by_return[:quintile]]
     short = [x[0] for x in sorted_by_return[-quintile:]]
 
 # Trade execution
 invested = [x.Key.Value for x in self.Portfolio if x.Value.Invested]
 for symbol in invested:
     if symbol not in long + short:
         self.Liquidate(symbol)
 
 for symbol in long:
     self.SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / len(long))
 for symbol in short:
     self.SetHoldings(symbol, -1 / len(short))
# Quantpedia data.
# NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise)
class QuantpediaFutures(PythonData):
_last_update_date:Dict[Symbol, datetime.date] = {}
@staticmethod
def get_last_update_date() -> Dict[Symbol, datetime.date]:
return QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date
def GetSource(self, config, date, isLiveMode):
 return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/{0}.csv".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv)
def Reader(self, config, line, date, isLiveMode):
 data = QuantpediaFutures()
 data.Symbol = config.Symbol
 
 if not line[0].isdigit(): return None
 split = line.split(';')
 
 data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%d.%m.%Y") + timedelta(days=1)
 data['back_adjusted'] = float(split[1])
 data['spliced'] = float(split[2])
 data.Value = float(split[1])
 if config.Symbol.Value not in QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date:
     QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = datetime(1,1,1).date()
 if data.Time.date() > QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value]:
     QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = data.Time.date()
     
 return data
# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
 fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
 return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))