Short-Term (1 Month) Momentum in Currencies
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Is There Momentum or Reversal in Weekly Currency Returns?
Ahmad Raza; Ben R. Marshall; Nuttawat Visaltanachoti
- NZUniversity of Otago
- ?University of Otago - Department of Accountancy and Finance
- NZMassey University
- ?Massey University - School of Economics and Finance
- ?Massey University - Department of Economics and Finance
Strategy in a nutshell
The strategy trades 63 currencies against the USD, forming a long–short portfolio based on 4-week lagged excess returns. Currencies in the top 20% of returns are classified as "winners," while those in the bottom 20% are "losers." The portfolio goes long winners and shorts losers, equally weighted and rebalanced every four weeks.
Economic rationale
Momentum returns increase with longer look-back periods, but the 4-week horizon maximizes returns in short-term FX trends. Returns are higher during DOWN states (after depreciation of major currencies versus USD) and exhibit stable volatility, yielding attractive risk-adjusted performance.
Backtest performance
Annualised return7.1%
Volatility8.1%
Beta-0.049
Sharpe ratio0.88
Sortino ratio-0.399
Win rate44%
Full Python code
from AlgorithmImports import *
class ShortTermMomentumCurrencies(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2010, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100000)
self.symbols = [
"CME_AD1", # Australian Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_BP1", # British Pound Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_CD1", # Canadian Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_EC1", # Euro FX Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_JY1", # Japanese Yen Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_MP1", # Mexican Peso Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_NE1",# New Zealand Dollar Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_SF1", # Swiss Franc Futures, Continuous Contract #1
]
self.period = 21
self.quantile = 5
self.SetWarmUp(self.period)
self.data = {}
for symbol in self.symbols:
data = self.AddData(QuantpediaFutures, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
data.SetLeverage(5)
data.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel())
self.data[symbol] = RollingWindow[float](self.period)
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.MonthStart(self.symbols[0]), self.TimeRules.At(0, 0), self.Rebalance)
def OnData(self, data):
for symbol in self.data:
symbol_obj = self.Symbol(symbol)
if symbol_obj in data.Keys:
if data[symbol_obj]:
price = data[symbol_obj].Value
if price != 0:
self.data[symbol].Add(price)
def Rebalance(self):
if self.IsWarmingUp: return
returns = {}
for symbol in self.data:
if self.data[symbol].IsReady:
# Check if data is still coming.
if self.securities[symbol].get_last_data() and self.time.date() > QuantpediaFutures.get_last_update_date()[symbol]:
self.liquidate(symbol)
continue
ret = self.data[symbol][0] / self.data[symbol][self.period-1] - 1
returns[symbol] = ret
long = []
short = []
if len(returns) >= self.quantile:
# Return sorting.
sorted_by_return = sorted(returns.items(), key = lambda x: x[1], reverse = True)
quintile = int(len(sorted_by_return) / self.quantile)
long = [x[0] for x in sorted_by_return[:quintile]]
short = [x[0] for x in sorted_by_return[-quintile:]]
# Trade execution
invested = [x.Key.Value for x in self.Portfolio if x.Value.Invested]
for symbol in invested:
if symbol not in long + short:
self.Liquidate(symbol)
for symbol in long:
self.SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / len(long))
for symbol in short:
self.SetHoldings(symbol, -1 / len(short))
# Quantpedia data.
# NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise)
class QuantpediaFutures(PythonData):
_last_update_date:Dict[Symbol, datetime.date] = {}
@staticmethod
def get_last_update_date() -> Dict[Symbol, datetime.date]:
return QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date
def GetSource(self, config, date, isLiveMode):
return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/{0}.csv".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv)
def Reader(self, config, line, date, isLiveMode):
data = QuantpediaFutures()
data.Symbol = config.Symbol
if not line[0].isdigit(): return None
split = line.split(';')
data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%d.%m.%Y") + timedelta(days=1)
data['back_adjusted'] = float(split[1])
data['spliced'] = float(split[2])
data.Value = float(split[1])
if config.Symbol.Value not in QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date:
QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = datetime(1,1,1).date()
if data.Time.date() > QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value]:
QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = data.Time.date()
return data
# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))