Rank Effect for Commodities
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Strategy in a nutshell
Constructs a daily long-short portfolio using 30 commodity futures, going long the lowest-ranked and short the highest-ranked commodities based on normalized prices.
Economic rationale
Lower-ranked commodities tend to appreciate faster than higher-ranked ones if normalized price distributions are stationary, creating a predictable rank effect.
Backtest performance
Annualised return23.2%
Beta0.146
Sortino ratio0.194
Win rate45%
Full Python code
from AlgorithmImports import *
class RankEffectForCommodities(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2010, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100000)
self.SetMaximumOrders(100000)
self.quantile: int = 5
self.symbols = [
"CME_S1", # Soybean Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_W1", # Wheat Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_SM1", # Soybean Meal Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_BO1", # Soybean Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_C1", # Corn Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_O1", # Oats Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_LC1", # Live Cattle Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_FC1", # Feeder Cattle Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_LN1", # Lean Hog Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_GC1", # Gold Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_SI1", # Silver Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_PL1", # Platinum Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_CL1", # Crude Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_HG1", # Copper Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_LB1", # Random Length Lumber Futures, Continuous Contract
# "CME_NG1", # Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Physical Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_PA1", # Palladium Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_RR1", # Rough Rice Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_DA1", # Class III Milk Futures
"ICE_RS1", # Canola Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_GO1", # Gas Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_RB2", # Gasoline Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_KW2", # Wheat Kansas, Continuous Contract
"ICE_WT1", # WTI Crude Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_RS1", # Canola Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_GO1", # Gas Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_RB2", # Gasoline Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_KW2", # Wheat Kansas, Continuous Contract
"ICE_WT1", # WTI Crude Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_CC1", # Cocoa Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_CT1", # Cotton No. 2 Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_KC1", # Coffee C Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_O1", # Heating Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_OJ1", # Orange Juice Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_SB1", # Sugar No. 11 Futures, Continuous Contract
]
for symbol in self.symbols:
data = self.AddData(QuantpediaFutures, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
data.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel())
data.SetLeverage(10)
self.base_price = {}
self.settings.daily_precise_end_time = False
def OnData(self, data):
# base
if self.Time.year == 2010 and self.Time.month == 1 and self.Time.day == 5:
for symbol in self.symbols:
if symbol in data and data[symbol]:
self.base_price[symbol] = data[symbol].Value
performance = {}
for symbol in self.symbols:
# Check if data is still coming.
if self.securities[symbol].get_last_data() and self.time.date() > QuantpediaFutures.get_last_update_date()[symbol]:
self.liquidate(symbol)
continue
symbol_obj = self.Symbol(symbol)
if symbol_obj in data and data[symbol_obj]:
price = data[symbol_obj].Value
if price != 0 and symbol in self.base_price:
base_price = self.base_price[symbol]
ret = (price / base_price) - 1
performance[symbol] = ret
if len(performance) < self.quantile:
return
sorted_perf = sorted(performance.items(), key = lambda x: x[1], reverse = True)
quintile = int(len(sorted_perf) / self.quantile)
long = [x[0] for x in sorted_perf[-quintile:]]
short = [x[0] for x in sorted_perf[:quintile]]
targets: List[PortfolioTarget] = []
for i, portfolio in enumerate([long, short]):
for symbol in portfolio:
if symbol in data and data[symbol]:
targets.append(PortfolioTarget(symbol, ((-1) ** i) / len(portfolio)))
self.SetHoldings(targets, True)
# invested = [x.Key.Value for x in self.Portfolio if x.Value.Invested]
# for symbol in invested:
# if symbol not in long + short:
# self.Liquidate(symbol)
# for symbol in long:
# self.SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / len(long))
# for symbol in short:
# self.SetHoldings(symbol, -1 / len(short))
# Quantpedia data.
# NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise)
class QuantpediaFutures(PythonData):
_last_update_date:Dict[Symbol, datetime.date] = {}
@staticmethod
def get_last_update_date() -> Dict[Symbol, datetime.date]:
return QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date
def GetSource(self, config, date, isLiveMode):
return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/{0}.csv".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv)
def Reader(self, config, line, date, isLiveMode):
data = QuantpediaFutures()
data.Symbol = config.Symbol
if not line[0].isdigit(): return None
split = line.split(';')
data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%d.%m.%Y") + timedelta(days=1)
data['back_adjusted'] = float(split[1])
data['spliced'] = float(split[2])
data.Value = float(split[1])
if config.Symbol.Value not in QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date:
QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = datetime(1,1,1).date()
if data.Time.date() > QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value]:
QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = data.Time.date()
return data
# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))