Max Pain Strategy – Stock Return Predictability at Options Expiration
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No Max Pain, No Max Gain: Stock Price Predictability at Options Expiration
Ilias Filippou; Pedro Angel Garcia-Ares; Fernando Zapatero
- Washington University in St. Louis
- ?Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School
- MXInstituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México
- ?Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM)
- Boston University
- CAQuest University Canada
- ?Questrom School of Business, Boston University
Strategy in a nutshell
This strategy uses the Max Pain concept from options markets to predict short-term stock moves. Stocks are sorted by Max Pain, then longed or shorted weekly based on relative values.
Economic rationale
The Max Pain theory suggests stocks gravitate toward strike prices minimizing total option payouts. Option writers’ actions influence underlying prices, allowing traders to anticipate short-term gains and losses before expiration.
Backtest performance
Annualised return4.91%
Volatility7.97%
Sharpe ratio0.62