Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Effect on US Dollar
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Strategy in a nutshell
This strategy shorts the USD against a basket of global currencies using USD TWI futures, trading only on the eight annual FOMC meeting days. A 10:1 leverage is applied, with neutral positions maintained outside these events to limit exposure.
Economic rationale
FOMC announcement days create uncertainty about future monetary policy, prompting investors to demand a risk premium. This leads to higher expected foreign exchange returns during these announcement periods.
Backtest performance
Annualised return7.71%
Volatility13.78%
Beta0.004
Sharpe ratio0.56
Sortino ratio-0.328
Win rate56%
Full Python code
from AlgorithmImports import *
from pandas.tseries.offsets import BDay
class FederalOpenMarketCommitteeMeetingEffectUSDollar(QCAlgorithm):
def initialize(self):
self.set_start_date(2004, 1, 1)
self.set_cash(100_000)
# fed days
csv_string_file: str = self.download('data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/economic/fed_days.csv')
dates: List[str] = csv_string_file.split('\r\n')
dates: List[datetime.date] = [(datetime.strptime(x, "%Y-%m-%d") - BDay(1)).date() for x in dates]
# import futures data
data: Security = self.add_data(QuantpediaFutures, "ICE_DX1", Resolution.DAILY)
data.set_fee_model(CustomFeeModel())
self.symbol: Symbol = data.symbol
self.close_next_day: bool = False
self.schedule.on(self.date_rules.on(dates), self.time_rules.at(0, 0), self.day_before_fed)
self.schedule.on(self.date_rules.every_day(self.symbol), self.time_rules.at(0, 0), self.rebalance)
def day_before_fed(self) -> None:
if self.time.date() >= QuantpediaFutures.get_last_update_date()[self.symbol.value]:
return
if not self.portfolio[self.symbol].is_short:
self.set_holdings(self.symbol, -1)
def rebalance(self) -> None:
if self.close_next_day:
self.liquidate(self.symbol)
self.close_next_day = False
if self.portfolio[self.symbol].is_short:
self.close_next_day = True
# Custom fee model
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))
# Quantpedia data.
# NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise)
class QuantpediaFutures(PythonData):
_last_update_date: Dict[str, datetime.date] = {}
@staticmethod
def get_last_update_date() -> Dict[str, datetime.date]:
return QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date
def GetSource(self, config:SubscriptionDataConfig, date:datetime, isLiveMode:bool) -> SubscriptionDataSource:
return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/{0}.csv".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv)
def Reader(self, config:SubscriptionDataConfig, line:str, date:datetime, isLiveMode:bool) -> BaseData:
data = QuantpediaFutures()
data.Symbol = config.Symbol
if not line[0].isdigit(): return None
split = line.split(';')
data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%d.%m.%Y") + timedelta(days=1)
data['back_adjusted'] = float(split[1])
data['spliced'] = float(split[2])
data.Value = float(split[1])
# store last update date
if config.Symbol.Value not in QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date:
QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = datetime(1,1,1).date()
if data.Time.date() > QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value]:
QuantpediaFutures._last_update_date[config.Symbol.Value] = data.Time.date()
return data