Quant BuffetRelax, Not Over Thinking

Fair Spread Value Factor in Corporate Bonds

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Academic paper

Putting Credit Factor Investing into Practice

AuthorsHendrik Kaufmann; Philip Messow

Institute
  • ?Quoniam Asset Management GmbH
  • ?Robeco Quantitative Investments

Strategy in a nutshell

Universe: USD-denominated IG bonds (Financials, Utilities, Industrials) from ICE G0BC index, excluding government and securitized bonds. Estimate fair OAS using ridge + adaptive LASSO regressions on bond and issuer characteristics. Value signal = market OAS – fair OAS. Long top quintile, equally weighted, monthly rebalanced.

Economic rationale

Captures undervalued bonds: market OAS > fair OAS signals underpricing. The strategy relies on robust ML-based fair value estimation, using multiple financial and market variables to identify mispriced bonds reliably.

Backtest performance

Annualised return2.1%
Volatility2.1%
Sharpe ratio1
Maximum drawdown-7.4%