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Cross-Stock Return Predictability

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Academic paper

Economic Links from Bonds and Cross-Stock Return Predictability

AuthorsJian Feng; Xiaolin Huo; Xin Liu; Yifei Mao

Institute
  • HKUniversity of Hong Kong
  • ?HKU Business School, The University of Hong Kong
  • Renmin University of China
  • ?School of Finance, Renmin University of China
  • SC Johnson (United States)
  • Cornell University
  • ?Cornell University - SC Johnson College of Business - Finance Department

Strategy in a nutshell

This strategy links U.S. stocks to peer firms whose corporate bonds exhibit rating comovement. Monthly peer returns are calculated, and focal firms are sorted into quintiles; the strategy goes long top quintile and short bottom quintile.

Economic rationale

Credit-rating comovement provides insights overlooked by equity analysts due to bond-equity market segmentation. This lag in equity response creates cross-firm return predictability, particularly when investors trade both stocks and bonds of the same firm.

Backtest performance

Annualised return4.16%
Volatility7.9%
Sharpe ratio0.53